Opinion By Mahmud Jega, 28 April 2014

There are 26 political parties in Nigeria today, so there will be several Muslim and several Christian presidential candidates. It depends therefore on whose vote is split the most.

The political actors and newspaper columnists who rushed in the last two weeks to say that a presidential election ticket made up of two adherents of the same religion cannot win in Nigeria have not thought about this matter very carefully. Ordinarily I wouldn’t have written about religion and politics because I, for one, will not cast a vote for or against anyone on religious grounds. However, I am intellectually provoked by the firm assertion of some commentators that a one-religion ticket cannot win an election in Nigeria. It can, under some circumstances.

The flurry of commentaries was sparked off by a newspaper story which said the opposition APC is planning to field what in Nigerian politics is called a “Muslim-Muslim” ticket in 2015, i.e. General Muhammadu Buhari and Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. “Religious balancing” is a very sensitive matter in Nigerian politics. It is taken for granted that the presidential ticket of every major political party must include one adherent each of the two major religions. Given this sensitivity, I was personally amazed that APC did not vigorously deny the story. Its tepid response allowed Femi Fani-Kayode, for one, to say that APC is trying to promote one religion over another. Some other commentators worsened matters by saying there is nothing wrong with a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Well, I am not saying it is a good thing or a bad thing. All I am saying is that in theory such a ticket or its obverse, a Christian-Christian ticket, can win an election in Nigeria.

The first reason for saying a one-religion ticket can win an election in Nigeria is because it has happened before. Usually, the best evidence that something can happen is if has happened before. Many Nigerians appear to believe that this scenario will not happen precisely because it happened before. Soon after the ill-fated June 12, 1993 election, the Christian Association of Nigeria [CAN] did say that it would not condone a Muslim-Muslim ticket again. It did not however say if it will tolerate a Christian-Christian ticket. No one can say for sure that the extraordinary combination of circumstances that produced the Abiola-Kingibe ticket in 1993 will never happen again in Nigeria.

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